* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 88 86 84 80 78 77 77 76 76 79 80 79 82 82 78 V (KT) LAND 85 88 88 86 84 80 78 77 77 76 76 79 80 79 82 82 71 V (KT) LGEM 85 90 91 91 90 87 84 82 79 77 73 69 65 63 62 54 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 20 19 17 11 18 26 37 32 30 33 35 49 31 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 1 6 3 3 0 0 3 0 3 -1 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 309 314 321 332 337 351 302 299 276 277 274 271 217 196 216 225 304 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.4 28.5 28.7 27.3 26.7 24.0 14.4 10.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 157 157 155 161 162 156 156 158 145 149 130 124 101 71 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 153 152 149 152 150 140 137 139 129 133 115 109 90 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -54.1 -54.3 -55.3 -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 50 52 56 60 67 74 70 63 53 47 46 49 45 36 30 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 14 15 16 19 19 19 23 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 14 7 0 12 24 19 16 -1 8 30 96 133 142 109 62 200 MB DIV 39 25 21 33 25 17 26 25 62 29 72 75 89 68 40 -14 18 700-850 TADV 1 -2 2 1 -1 15 6 6 3 14 12 19 13 11 27 -28 67 LAND (KM) 907 823 677 541 423 334 455 527 671 847 1048 1018 964 730 482 204 23 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.0 21.2 22.6 24.1 25.6 27.2 29.2 31.7 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.5 57.9 59.3 60.7 62.1 64.6 66.6 68.0 68.5 68.4 67.5 65.8 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 12 11 9 8 9 13 16 18 20 21 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 50 53 60 80 61 36 35 31 20 33 14 15 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. -2. 2. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -6. -5. -6. -3. -3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.7 56.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.33 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 625.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.37 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 15.2% 10.6% 8.4% 4.9% 8.5% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 8.4% 6.0% 5.5% 2.4% 4.8% 2.7% 1.5% Bayesian: 7.2% 3.5% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 9.0% 6.7% 4.7% 2.5% 5.3% 4.3% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/20/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 9( 27) 7( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 88 86 84 80 78 77 77 76 76 79 80 79 82 82 71 18HR AGO 85 84 84 82 80 76 74 73 73 72 72 75 76 75 78 78 67 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 77 73 71 70 70 69 69 72 73 72 75 75 64 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 69 67 66 66 65 65 68 69 68 71 71 60 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 62 60 59 59 58 58 61 62 61 64 64 53 IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 68 66 65 65 64 64 67 68 67 70 70 59 IN 12HR 85 88 88 79 73 69 67 66 66 65 65 68 69 68 71 71 60