* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 70 74 79 80 79 75 70 63 56 49 45 41 37 34 V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 70 74 75 76 75 71 66 57 49 43 38 35 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 68 72 74 77 76 71 63 53 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 8 4 1 2 4 15 20 23 23 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -4 0 -1 0 2 -2 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 243 243 255 237 119 14 203 231 230 244 267 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.2 31.2 31.1 30.7 30.2 29.1 27.8 26.7 25.7 24.2 22.8 21.8 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 170 166 154 141 129 119 103 88 78 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 6 7 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 62 60 55 55 51 51 53 49 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 79 90 78 64 56 67 60 43 40 30 32 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 87 60 38 51 9 4 15 11 44 -13 -16 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 -8 1 0 5 8 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 119 178 196 126 60 26 40 20 71 7 26 47 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.2 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.4 108.0 108.7 109.3 110.5 111.5 112.4 113.3 114.1 114.8 115.3 115.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 30 32 31 25 14 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 19. 20. 19. 15. 10. 3. -4. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.4 106.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 14.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.77 11.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.52 8.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -9.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 13.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.30 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.4% 61.7% 58.8% 50.4% 40.7% 43.5% 33.3% 12.8% Logistic: 4.4% 9.2% 8.1% 2.8% 1.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 24.0% 22.4% 17.7% 14.1% 15.1% 11.2% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##