* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 52 55 57 61 63 59 56 50 46 44 38 36 33 35 36 V (KT) LAND 50 50 52 55 57 61 63 59 56 50 46 44 38 36 33 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 50 50 51 53 54 52 47 42 37 33 30 27 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 15 18 19 19 23 18 11 10 5 2 4 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 4 -4 -2 0 0 0 -6 -4 4 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 61 56 61 53 61 69 82 93 123 151 167 325 46 135 136 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.5 27.5 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 156 158 157 158 149 138 121 115 112 108 106 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 69 68 63 59 53 49 44 38 36 36 35 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 21 21 24 22 20 18 17 15 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 32 48 57 64 70 74 64 48 47 38 35 21 -3 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 124 114 99 74 91 59 33 10 -2 11 -7 -16 -2 -17 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 -2 -6 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 2 3 7 4 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 676 621 566 530 489 370 304 329 312 355 411 437 467 505 545 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 23.5 24.2 24.7 25.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 110.5 110.2 110.1 110.0 110.5 111.6 112.9 114.2 115.5 116.7 117.7 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 19 18 15 14 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 13. 9. 6. 0. -4. -6. -12. -14. -17. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.7 110.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##