* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 40 40 37 35 35 35 38 36 33 29 23 21 19 15 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 40 40 37 35 35 35 38 36 33 29 23 21 19 15 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 37 35 31 28 25 24 24 23 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 11 12 10 9 1 4 4 3 15 21 16 27 17 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 1 3 3 3 8 7 1 4 10 10 3 6 0 SHEAR DIR 219 218 244 246 235 240 263 135 65 267 227 225 218 197 196 200 224 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.4 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 138 137 133 127 126 129 130 130 130 129 129 129 128 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 57 55 54 53 51 49 50 47 44 40 36 31 29 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 16 17 15 15 15 13 14 13 13 12 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 35 21 20 16 19 8 5 29 51 79 97 101 78 90 76 60 61 200 MB DIV 22 26 33 57 74 26 -4 -2 27 47 55 35 19 69 11 -2 7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 2 4 4 1 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1950 1958 1967 1978 1989 2028 2096 2209 2184 2074 1973 1855 1750 1639 1543 1469 1385 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.6 17.2 16.8 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.1 129.5 129.9 130.3 130.7 131.4 132.2 133.2 134.3 135.4 136.3 137.3 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 18 25 32 23 10 7 11 10 10 16 6 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -7. -9. -12. -16. -22. -24. -26. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 129.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 21.5% 20.5% 16.0% 11.6% 17.4% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.7% 7.5% 5.7% 4.0% 5.9% 5.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##