* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 80 80 79 77 75 76 75 74 77 76 83 90 92 89 82 V (KT) LAND 75 79 80 80 79 77 75 76 75 74 77 76 83 90 92 89 82 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 84 85 84 83 80 78 78 76 74 71 69 69 68 65 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 19 19 20 20 11 16 20 30 34 33 31 22 13 27 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 5 5 0 5 2 0 2 0 0 2 -3 -2 6 6 SHEAR DIR 311 309 316 319 326 343 338 299 284 276 257 275 249 233 342 337 290 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.4 28.7 27.6 26.9 27.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 153 157 158 158 163 164 156 156 153 143 148 133 125 126 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 149 153 154 151 153 151 139 137 135 126 129 116 108 107 84 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.5 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 9 9 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 48 50 53 64 70 72 70 58 54 44 43 40 33 36 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 13 16 17 22 27 28 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 8 10 12 7 16 3 6 -7 2 2 44 75 119 114 73 200 MB DIV 27 36 25 2 14 3 43 28 49 53 43 53 90 29 28 7 -17 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 6 -1 5 10 3 9 10 14 17 26 4 14 28 49 LAND (KM) 947 909 823 676 538 336 345 432 543 701 904 992 991 992 842 706 544 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.4 21.6 23.0 24.5 26.0 27.8 29.8 31.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.2 56.6 57.9 59.3 60.7 63.4 65.8 67.7 68.9 69.5 69.1 67.7 66.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 8 10 13 13 15 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 39 50 54 70 78 57 45 46 31 19 34 12 9 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -2. -2. 4. 10. 10. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. 1. 0. -1. 2. 1. 8. 15. 17. 14. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.2 55.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 603.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.24 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.47 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 16.2% 11.1% 8.8% 5.4% 8.9% 10.3% 8.7% Logistic: 6.2% 11.0% 8.9% 8.5% 3.2% 6.4% 3.3% 2.7% Bayesian: 6.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 2.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 9.6% 7.4% 5.8% 2.9% 5.6% 5.2% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/19/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 7( 18) 6( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 80 80 79 77 75 76 75 74 77 76 83 90 92 89 82 18HR AGO 75 74 75 75 74 72 70 71 70 69 72 71 78 85 87 84 77 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 70 68 66 67 66 65 68 67 74 81 83 80 73 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 62 60 61 60 59 62 61 68 75 77 74 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT