* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 65 68 75 77 76 74 71 67 63 57 55 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 60 66 67 70 74 81 83 81 70 73 61 52 46 44 43 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 65 66 69 75 78 78 75 69 64 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 3 5 3 6 4 4 9 15 19 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 6 2 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 -3 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 283 313 315 291 100 43 102 249 201 230 254 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.1 29.2 28.0 27.1 26.4 24.8 23.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 170 170 165 155 142 133 126 109 98 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 11 8 7 9 4 6 3 4 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 68 66 59 59 59 58 56 52 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 79 87 82 59 58 53 50 28 31 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 83 85 54 53 48 10 22 5 29 21 8 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -5 -5 -3 -4 -2 -4 0 -5 0 9 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -5 46 116 173 218 96 44 41 -6 62 -3 2 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.8 24.8 25.8 26.8 27.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.1 106.6 107.2 107.9 109.3 110.5 111.3 112.1 112.8 113.6 114.3 115.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 43 37 31 31 23 14 6 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 15. 17. 16. 14. 11. 7. 3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.2 105.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 13.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.89 12.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.56 8.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 12.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.38 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.61 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.4% 59.4% 54.8% 51.3% 44.2% 48.4% 37.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 17.4% 14.0% 5.7% 1.3% 6.0% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 26.0% 23.1% 19.0% 15.2% 18.2% 12.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##