* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 67 68 69 66 61 53 45 41 38 35 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 67 68 69 66 61 53 45 41 38 35 31 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 60 60 60 58 56 51 44 37 33 31 30 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 17 20 23 19 23 21 11 10 5 3 1 10 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 1 1 -4 -4 0 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 66 69 62 67 84 81 92 105 127 171 256 278 165 153 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.2 27.9 26.9 25.7 25.2 24.4 23.7 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 151 151 151 156 142 132 119 113 104 97 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 69 67 63 61 54 49 43 39 33 31 29 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 18 19 17 19 18 17 14 11 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 32 40 43 59 63 68 57 42 37 34 54 45 32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 152 142 139 101 115 92 47 50 0 -6 0 -17 -12 -12 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 3 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 2 3 5 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 773 722 671 636 601 538 461 401 396 376 423 409 400 398 425 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.3 19.2 20.4 21.6 22.7 23.7 24.6 25.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 111.9 111.8 111.7 111.6 111.6 112.0 112.8 114.0 115.2 116.3 117.2 117.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 4 6 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 19 18 15 12 15 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 4. 5. 4. -0. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 11. 6. -2. -10. -14. -17. -20. -24. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 112.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##