* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 67 68 67 68 70 70 73 72 75 77 85 90 88 82 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 67 68 67 68 70 70 73 72 75 77 85 90 88 82 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 69 70 72 73 73 74 75 74 72 70 71 70 62 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 17 18 18 17 7 19 23 32 32 40 43 41 36 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 3 2 2 0 2 1 2 0 0 7 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 313 320 312 319 324 326 347 297 288 273 275 270 279 262 302 283 274 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.5 28.9 28.3 28.4 27.4 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 152 155 153 157 155 163 163 158 153 160 150 141 143 131 124 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 150 152 150 154 150 156 152 143 135 140 131 122 124 113 107 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 50 50 60 69 75 70 61 56 52 48 42 34 44 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 14 14 12 13 12 11 14 14 17 20 28 34 35 31 850 MB ENV VOR 22 17 15 9 11 0 11 20 5 6 -12 3 28 111 157 148 153 200 MB DIV -6 24 29 25 8 15 23 38 22 66 22 54 63 73 11 14 -11 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 0 7 -5 6 3 7 12 15 14 15 7 10 1 -12 LAND (KM) 987 923 883 814 665 390 290 398 475 634 811 983 956 988 992 850 728 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.7 20.9 22.3 23.8 25.4 27.0 28.8 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.9 55.3 56.6 58.0 59.4 62.3 64.9 67.1 68.6 69.5 69.5 68.8 67.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 9 8 9 10 11 12 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 37 46 44 39 50 62 84 70 46 47 44 28 20 29 14 7 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -5. -6. -3. 0. 9. 17. 16. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 10. 10. 13. 12. 15. 17. 25. 30. 28. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.4 53.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.38 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 18.3% 12.1% 9.4% 6.2% 10.2% 11.6% 12.5% Logistic: 8.3% 13.8% 13.8% 12.4% 3.7% 6.4% 3.8% 3.7% Bayesian: 2.6% 1.5% 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% 3.5% 0.1% Consensus: 6.2% 11.2% 10.4% 7.3% 3.4% 6.4% 6.3% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/19/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 67 68 67 68 70 70 73 72 75 77 85 90 88 82 18HR AGO 60 59 62 63 64 63 64 66 66 69 68 71 73 81 86 84 78 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 57 58 60 60 63 62 65 67 75 80 78 72 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 50 51 53 53 56 55 58 60 68 73 71 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT