* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 70 74 79 80 78 73 68 64 62 60 54 49 42 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 70 74 79 80 78 73 68 64 62 60 54 49 42 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 69 73 77 81 79 72 66 61 57 54 49 42 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 15 16 14 15 15 20 12 9 2 4 8 14 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -6 -2 -2 -1 4 3 2 4 -1 0 6 3 5 SHEAR DIR 62 66 67 60 57 64 91 102 78 105 101 201 330 12 23 46 61 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.7 26.8 26.0 25.0 23.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 150 149 150 151 152 152 154 153 147 139 130 122 112 98 89 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 76 72 69 65 59 50 44 40 38 38 38 38 33 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 15 15 16 16 21 22 23 21 19 17 16 16 14 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 40 32 27 29 34 56 70 82 82 92 81 63 39 39 43 24 11 200 MB DIV 134 132 106 115 127 115 110 64 57 53 23 8 -5 -15 -24 -34 -15 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -9 -4 -4 2 2 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 3 -1 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 875 878 849 817 788 736 701 653 607 561 528 476 449 456 394 358 380 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.0 112.4 112.7 113.0 113.2 113.3 113.3 113.6 114.1 114.7 115.4 116.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 4 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 14 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 13 6 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 5. 7. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 24. 25. 23. 18. 13. 9. 7. 5. -1. -6. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.6 111.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.63 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.08 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.87 8.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 -7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.81 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.4% 51.0% 35.8% 25.7% 15.8% 33.2% 27.4% 18.6% Logistic: 6.1% 16.5% 6.6% 4.2% 1.8% 2.7% 1.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 8.6% 4.1% 4.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 23.9% 15.7% 10.4% 5.9% 12.2% 9.7% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##