* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 89 76 64 41 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 100 89 76 64 41 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 102 95 85 72 53 41 36 34 35 38 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 52 60 62 58 45 35 32 38 28 20 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 11 16 14 5 1 1 2 7 6 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 206 217 211 210 215 205 238 233 230 222 209 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.7 27.5 27.1 27.2 27.5 25.0 21.0 18.5 18.9 17.0 14.2 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 135 133 127 128 131 107 87 81 82 77 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 120 116 111 109 109 91 79 76 77 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -51.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -51.7 -49.8 -49.1 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 39 39 41 43 50 64 69 64 60 60 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 44 45 44 44 35 32 30 27 22 25 28 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 122 144 137 126 106 63 42 68 97 178 241 237 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 68 43 52 45 44 49 72 45 56 53 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -29 -30 -4 15 42 10 -14 -18 -83 -90 -11 19 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 865 963 958 894 798 660 538 478 624 1156 1464 897 452 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.5 34.5 35.8 37.0 39.2 41.0 42.4 44.0 46.0 48.6 51.9 55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.2 65.6 63.9 62.7 61.5 60.0 57.9 53.4 46.1 37.8 30.2 23.4 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 16 14 12 15 23 30 30 28 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 13 14 14 15 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 14 CX,CY: 13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -33. -46. -56. -65. -71. -77. -81. -83. -84. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -18. -29. -37. -47. -47. -42. -39. -34. -28. -24. -19. -18. -18. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -6. -13. -17. -24. -31. -29. -25. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -16. -29. -41. -64. -78. -88.-101.-111.-110.-104.-102.-103.-103.-104.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 32.4 67.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 646.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 11( 35) 0( 35) 0( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 100 89 76 64 41 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 93 80 68 45 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 88 76 53 39 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 83 60 46 36 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 63 49 39 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 IN 6HR 105 100 91 85 82 72 58 48 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 IN 12HR 105 100 89 80 74 70 56 46 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29