* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 59 62 66 67 68 65 66 65 69 67 71 72 75 77 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 59 62 66 67 68 65 66 65 69 67 71 72 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 62 66 74 77 75 72 73 77 77 74 70 66 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 13 19 15 21 18 17 13 20 23 32 31 30 44 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -6 -5 -2 1 1 0 0 -2 0 4 1 -2 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 16 306 296 291 311 330 340 344 338 285 280 259 257 264 291 270 257 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 142 145 149 157 159 154 163 164 163 158 152 150 148 150 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 140 145 148 156 158 149 156 153 147 139 133 130 129 129 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 48 49 47 46 45 53 56 66 69 72 63 54 49 44 47 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 14 14 13 10 11 11 13 12 15 16 20 26 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 32 20 15 12 8 11 -4 16 10 10 -12 5 0 44 75 200 MB DIV 29 20 29 -2 4 33 12 24 4 30 39 67 18 37 45 62 35 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 0 -5 5 0 -2 1 5 2 13 10 11 10 -2 LAND (KM) 1131 1120 1119 1093 998 873 633 342 274 363 441 586 750 932 945 965 1027 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.9 22.2 23.6 25.0 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.7 50.9 52.3 53.7 56.6 59.7 62.8 65.4 67.6 69.1 69.9 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 15 13 11 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 30 27 30 38 47 54 67 89 71 55 61 54 26 20 35 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -11. -11. -9. -11. -8. -6. -2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 21. 22. 23. 20. 21. 20. 24. 22. 26. 27. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 48.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 10.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.67 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.68 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.69 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.9% 40.5% 28.7% 22.5% 7.2% 21.1% 23.9% 17.2% Logistic: 38.1% 49.6% 54.9% 33.5% 7.5% 22.1% 9.8% 7.3% Bayesian: 30.0% 24.6% 51.4% 3.5% 2.1% 18.3% 6.8% 0.5% Consensus: 29.3% 38.2% 45.0% 19.8% 5.6% 20.5% 13.5% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/18/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 56 59 62 66 67 68 65 66 65 69 67 71 72 75 77 18HR AGO 45 44 49 52 55 59 60 61 58 59 58 62 60 64 65 68 70 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 51 52 53 50 51 50 54 52 56 57 60 62 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 42 43 44 41 42 41 45 43 47 48 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT