* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 49 53 56 58 58 55 51 49 48 46 44 41 37 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 49 53 56 58 58 55 51 49 48 46 44 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 49 52 54 56 56 54 50 46 41 38 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 18 21 22 19 14 22 19 34 32 23 12 10 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 -3 -6 -2 2 4 1 -1 3 2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 60 52 58 68 77 75 84 78 100 85 95 107 93 73 294 320 256 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 29.0 28.5 27.6 26.5 25.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 154 149 150 149 150 151 151 150 153 148 139 127 118 102 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 80 78 74 68 64 62 57 53 48 40 30 19 18 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 49 40 36 32 25 41 56 78 79 83 66 78 49 58 48 42 200 MB DIV 106 116 129 128 123 130 119 77 64 11 8 14 24 12 -19 11 -17 700-850 TADV -13 -15 -18 -9 -7 -1 4 0 4 4 1 -3 -1 -3 0 2 13 LAND (KM) 819 815 826 846 836 798 780 780 771 759 714 668 596 490 435 405 330 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.8 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.3 111.0 111.7 112.3 113.0 113.3 113.5 113.7 114.0 114.3 114.7 115.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 6 3 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 22 19 16 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 20 14 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -16. -14. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 15. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.4 109.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 10.4% 3.7% 2.0% 0.7% 3.1% 4.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 6.7% 11.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 1.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##