* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 93 84 76 57 44 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 98 93 84 76 57 44 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 102 101 97 89 71 52 40 36 34 34 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 38 45 57 61 55 42 30 29 39 35 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 5 9 15 4 5 8 3 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 203 204 207 218 208 217 214 236 240 233 223 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.3 24.9 19.5 19.8 19.1 18.1 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 143 135 131 128 129 106 81 83 83 81 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 126 119 115 110 108 90 74 77 77 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.0 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 38 39 39 39 42 41 49 63 75 70 70 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 40 40 43 43 39 35 33 28 26 28 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 102 123 143 134 97 46 24 46 92 169 166 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 69 67 61 34 52 41 68 58 61 54 76 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -25 -33 -30 -49 -9 21 12 5 -20 -49 -96 -108 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 679 755 850 957 949 785 631 518 445 596 1063 1538 830 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.1 32.7 33.7 34.6 37.2 39.6 41.5 42.7 43.6 45.2 47.6 50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.3 68.7 67.2 65.5 63.9 61.3 59.6 57.3 52.9 46.9 39.4 30.6 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 17 16 15 13 15 20 25 30 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 30 25 13 14 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -14. -24. -35. -46. -53. -59. -65. -68. -70. -71. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -13. -22. -30. -43. -46. -41. -38. -34. -31. -30. -29. -28. -28. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 4. 4. -1. -5. -9. -16. -22. -19. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -16. -24. -43. -56. -64. -73. -85. -94. -93. -81. -83. -83. -86. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.5 70.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 640.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 14( 33) 5( 36) 0( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 93 84 76 57 44 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 94 85 77 58 45 37 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 87 79 60 47 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 82 63 50 42 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 62 49 41 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 70 57 49 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 98 93 84 78 74 61 53 44 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17