* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 97 92 84 67 55 46 41 30 22 19 23 29 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 101 97 92 84 67 55 46 41 30 22 19 23 29 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 104 106 103 97 81 60 45 38 36 36 38 42 44 44 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 34 38 46 52 57 49 27 32 30 42 46 40 8 19 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 1 6 16 6 10 6 2 5 5 7 -2 6 8 8 SHEAR DIR 203 205 208 208 212 215 216 221 227 228 222 211 207 237 12 309 279 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.8 27.2 27.2 24.1 22.0 12.9 20.1 19.4 18.8 17.2 15.5 13.7 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 148 137 136 129 128 100 89 69 84 81 78 73 70 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 130 121 120 112 108 86 79 67 77 75 71 68 66 65 65 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -52.3 -51.0 -49.4 -49.2 -50.1 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 2.3 4.9 5.2 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 42 39 39 37 40 45 48 56 70 63 52 39 47 55 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 36 37 40 40 44 41 36 36 31 30 30 35 40 40 34 29 850 MB ENV VOR 77 87 97 124 141 106 75 47 33 77 141 225 244 275 245 229 198 200 MB DIV 85 94 63 71 62 69 41 67 63 79 37 62 49 3 -6 -37 -20 700-850 TADV -18 -21 -33 -32 -37 -1 21 15 0 -34 -71 -144 -64 -29 37 39 9 LAND (KM) 604 673 743 832 942 872 726 594 541 463 723 1174 1522 1430 1166 972 806 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.7 32.1 32.9 33.7 36.0 38.4 40.4 41.9 43.0 44.1 45.4 46.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.6 70.3 68.9 67.3 65.7 62.5 60.1 58.0 54.8 50.4 44.6 37.8 32.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 16 17 16 14 14 16 19 23 22 16 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 38 30 20 14 16 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -13. -23. -32. -43. -51. -57. -63. -69. -73. -76. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -18. -25. -38. -43. -40. -37. -32. -30. -30. -30. -27. -24. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 1. 0. -7. -10. -10. -4. 2. 1. -6. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -8. -16. -33. -45. -54. -59. -70. -78. -81. -77. -71. -74. -87. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.2 71.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 630.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 20( 38) 9( 43) 3( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 97 92 84 67 55 46 41 30 22 19 23 29 26 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 95 90 82 65 53 44 39 28 20 17 21 27 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 83 66 54 45 40 29 21 18 22 28 25 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 82 65 53 44 39 28 20 17 21 27 24 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 64 52 43 38 27 19 16 20 26 23 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 74 62 53 48 37 29 26 30 36 33 DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 97 88 82 78 66 57 52 41 33 30 34 40 37 DIS DIS