* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 45 46 47 50 52 54 54 51 52 51 51 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 45 46 47 50 52 54 54 51 52 51 51 52 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 50 44 41 39 38 37 37 37 37 36 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 4 4 8 6 10 11 6 10 8 10 6 2 14 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 4 -2 -2 -4 -6 -1 0 3 4 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 70 118 137 131 122 157 190 177 165 141 132 97 64 4 16 226 222 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 138 141 143 140 136 135 136 135 132 129 132 137 138 138 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 64 61 63 61 59 57 54 51 50 47 52 53 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 17 17 19 20 19 19 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -10 1 14 16 16 30 20 18 10 6 13 24 44 75 79 107 79 200 MB DIV -11 0 10 4 -7 2 28 32 43 2 -15 -46 -28 -22 15 30 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 1576 1628 1675 1719 1762 1843 1880 1905 1947 2005 2070 2165 2284 2188 2076 1967 1858 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.7 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.4 125.9 126.4 126.9 128.0 128.8 129.4 130.1 130.8 131.5 132.3 133.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 7 9 10 9 9 10 13 13 10 9 13 14 12 12 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. 2. 4. 4. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.9 124.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.70 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 19.1% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 5.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.1% 6.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##