* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 62 63 63 61 60 61 56 52 50 51 53 53 51 50 V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 62 63 63 61 60 61 56 52 50 51 53 53 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 58 57 56 54 52 49 45 40 37 35 35 35 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 8 4 1 9 8 14 10 16 8 4 5 6 3 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 6 -1 0 -4 0 5 1 2 3 2 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 45 66 95 133 113 168 211 173 198 189 215 207 7 55 301 227 232 SST (C) 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.8 27.3 27.6 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 135 138 140 138 134 133 134 133 132 129 130 135 138 139 144 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 62 60 63 62 63 62 59 58 58 53 54 48 46 48 51 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 18 18 17 18 19 17 15 14 14 16 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -5 8 16 19 25 28 18 14 0 1 13 43 79 89 94 52 200 MB DIV -13 -12 -1 3 2 0 10 25 35 23 -3 -37 -29 2 8 34 2 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1563 1608 1651 1690 1730 1812 1857 1891 1934 1969 2034 2114 2233 2222 2107 1996 1879 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.5 17.2 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.4 125.8 126.3 126.8 127.9 128.8 129.5 130.2 130.7 131.4 132.1 133.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 4 4 6 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 6 7 8 8 7 9 11 12 10 7 11 15 12 12 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. -0. -3. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -9. -13. -15. -14. -12. -12. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.1 124.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 19.7% 19.2% 15.3% 11.5% 13.7% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.4% 7.0% 5.5% 3.9% 4.8% 3.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##