* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL172019 09/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 46 54 60 65 65 65 69 72 77 80 83 85 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 46 54 60 65 65 65 69 72 77 80 83 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 43 49 56 62 65 66 68 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 11 8 4 8 10 15 18 19 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 0 0 -4 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 33 19 16 20 330 312 320 344 358 358 352 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 145 144 141 140 145 148 157 167 165 165 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 142 140 137 137 144 146 154 166 161 160 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 50 49 47 48 48 51 57 65 65 72 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 16 11 15 15 15 11 10 3 -21 -15 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 13 23 22 1 23 0 8 1 19 2 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 0 0 0 3 -6 -2 -2 -7 -3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1222 1192 1161 1138 1125 1106 1043 886 776 465 208 211 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.6 45.5 46.4 47.3 48.2 50.4 52.9 55.6 58.4 61.3 64.1 66.9 69.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 34 40 49 52 25 27 48 44 67 71 80 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 32. 36. 40. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 24. 30. 35. 35. 35. 39. 42. 47. 50. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 44.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172019 INVEST 09/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 33.3 to 3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172019 INVEST 09/17/19 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172019 INVEST 09/17/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 46 54 60 65 65 65 69 72 77 80 83 85 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 43 51 57 62 62 62 66 69 74 77 80 82 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 46 52 57 57 57 61 64 69 72 75 77 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 37 43 48 48 48 52 55 60 63 66 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT