* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 81 81 78 75 70 66 61 54 54 47 42 37 33 27 V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 81 81 78 75 70 66 61 54 54 47 42 37 33 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 84 86 87 87 86 75 60 48 41 39 39 38 37 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 26 26 31 37 50 60 51 32 27 19 30 30 40 35 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 1 0 1 -1 0 10 4 3 4 -1 2 7 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 214 225 224 204 206 209 210 214 215 239 233 218 257 288 311 310 14 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.9 28.2 27.5 26.9 27.3 25.7 22.6 21.6 13.9 20.4 20.6 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 143 143 142 151 142 132 124 128 111 90 86 68 82 82 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 119 121 121 121 131 126 115 106 105 92 78 75 65 73 73 70 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -55.4 -57.7 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 49 46 42 41 42 46 49 55 54 48 31 22 27 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 31 32 33 36 38 41 43 41 38 39 36 35 35 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 22 60 66 80 121 101 59 26 43 79 95 134 0 -115 -121 200 MB DIV 19 27 55 64 65 64 60 12 2 60 51 61 42 6 -26 -63 -56 700-850 TADV -7 1 0 -6 -16 -20 -54 -54 -18 3 12 -15 -21 -80 -44 -35 48 LAND (KM) 466 488 509 534 571 694 893 972 825 686 599 600 503 486 605 820 1045 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.7 32.9 34.8 37.0 39.1 40.5 41.4 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.5 74.8 74.0 73.1 72.2 69.9 66.6 63.1 60.8 59.5 57.6 55.2 52.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 12 16 16 13 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 21 20 19 34 23 17 9 18 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -23. -28. -34. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -19. -25. -30. -30. -28. -27. -26. -27. -28. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 12. 8. 9. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -19. -26. -26. -33. -38. -43. -47. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.3 75.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.65 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 505.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 12.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 2.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 5.0% 3.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 8( 21) 6( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 81 81 81 81 78 75 70 66 61 54 54 47 42 37 33 27 18HR AGO 80 79 79 79 79 76 73 68 64 59 52 52 45 40 35 31 25 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 76 73 70 65 61 56 49 49 42 37 32 28 22 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 67 64 59 55 50 43 43 36 31 26 22 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT