* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 83 84 84 81 83 82 78 67 62 56 55 47 40 32 28 V (KT) LAND 80 82 83 84 84 81 83 82 78 67 62 56 55 47 40 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 87 89 90 91 90 85 71 56 46 42 41 40 38 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 24 24 24 34 37 47 49 38 26 23 17 30 37 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 2 4 2 1 1 6 15 2 6 5 0 1 12 14 3 SHEAR DIR 231 219 227 222 204 215 202 216 209 221 223 241 239 273 302 315 330 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 29.1 28.0 27.7 27.0 27.1 25.3 22.6 18.7 14.7 19.6 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 139 142 143 141 154 138 134 125 126 108 91 77 70 79 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 116 120 121 121 133 119 115 106 105 91 79 70 66 72 73 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -52.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -55.6 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 48 48 44 41 36 40 50 56 57 52 41 29 32 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 31 32 34 39 41 44 40 38 36 35 33 30 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 17 27 53 71 106 113 95 57 45 48 81 115 110 -38 -99 200 MB DIV 43 28 28 50 49 62 79 43 66 35 50 47 63 47 -37 -73 -69 700-850 TADV -2 -5 0 0 -6 -11 -21 -13 13 13 11 3 -15 -89 -85 -24 48 LAND (KM) 444 466 482 514 532 604 733 889 916 784 710 621 578 417 449 666 918 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.7 31.2 31.9 33.2 34.9 37.0 38.7 40.2 41.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.2 75.6 75.0 74.3 73.5 71.6 69.2 66.5 64.0 61.9 59.9 57.8 55.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 10 12 13 13 13 11 11 13 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 22 20 19 32 20 18 17 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. -35. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -24. -23. -21. -22. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 15. 19. 12. 10. 6. 4. -0. -4. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. 3. 2. -2. -13. -18. -24. -25. -33. -40. -48. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.1 76.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.22 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.71 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 15.0% 10.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 8.8% 6.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.4% 8.0% 5.8% 3.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 9( 15) 9( 23) 8( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 83 84 84 81 83 82 78 67 62 56 55 47 40 32 28 18HR AGO 80 79 80 81 81 78 80 79 75 64 59 53 52 44 37 29 25 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 77 74 76 75 71 60 55 49 48 40 33 25 21 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 67 69 68 64 53 48 42 41 33 26 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 80 82 83 74 68 64 66 65 61 50 45 39 38 30 23 15 DIS