* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 64 67 72 76 79 80 80 79 67 59 52 46 41 32 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 64 67 72 76 79 80 80 79 67 59 52 46 41 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 67 70 75 79 81 82 81 71 55 44 38 35 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 16 21 20 21 25 30 36 51 57 53 32 28 23 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 5 3 4 1 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 273 258 254 265 267 226 234 216 219 214 219 220 229 226 237 275 332 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 29.1 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.6 25.1 23.9 17.6 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 138 137 136 139 142 155 142 138 133 120 106 98 74 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 116 115 114 115 118 122 135 125 120 114 101 89 84 68 75 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.9 -55.4 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 60 56 55 52 48 42 37 36 38 44 51 55 58 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 20 21 24 27 30 31 35 40 36 34 34 32 31 27 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 11 -8 -1 8 30 56 85 107 84 38 8 25 33 46 39 200 MB DIV 22 40 51 31 20 25 29 31 62 62 45 46 47 44 37 0 29 700-850 TADV 6 4 1 4 3 -3 -2 -15 -20 -42 -20 26 11 7 -3 -10 -9 LAND (KM) 274 283 294 332 372 434 483 548 696 910 977 879 791 748 611 539 615 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.4 30.8 31.3 32.0 33.1 34.8 36.9 38.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.5 77.2 76.0 74.4 72.3 69.6 66.3 63.0 59.8 57.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 6 9 10 13 16 16 15 12 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 42 45 47 40 34 28 21 18 31 21 21 20 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -20. -27. -30. -33. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 18. 24. 18. 14. 12. 9. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. 12. 4. -3. -9. -14. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.6 77.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.55 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 17.1% 11.5% 8.9% 5.2% 9.4% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 17.5% 10.9% 5.2% 1.6% 6.7% 2.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 11.8% 7.6% 4.7% 2.3% 5.4% 4.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 64 67 72 76 79 80 80 79 67 59 52 46 41 32 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 62 67 71 74 75 75 74 62 54 47 41 36 27 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 56 61 65 68 69 69 68 56 48 41 35 30 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 53 57 60 61 61 60 48 40 33 27 22 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT