* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/14/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 56 60 66 73 76 79 79 81 81 79 57 39 29 37 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 56 60 66 73 76 79 79 81 81 79 57 39 29 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 57 61 68 74 77 78 80 81 78 68 49 34 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 14 13 11 18 13 24 26 35 41 53 60 58 61 60 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -3 -6 -6 0 -2 1 0 1 1 0 11 7 0 -8 -7 SHEAR DIR 247 259 283 286 271 268 245 247 234 228 216 224 213 223 230 247 254 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.3 26.0 24.6 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 137 138 140 138 137 137 142 149 153 149 137 130 116 105 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 119 116 116 116 115 115 115 121 130 134 131 119 111 100 91 70 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.9 -54.4 -55.3 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 58 61 55 55 48 49 43 43 41 39 42 39 33 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 20 23 23 26 27 31 34 39 30 21 19 31 850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 -18 -9 5 -19 1 8 35 72 82 106 108 79 70 -54 -145 200 MB DIV 18 34 18 17 33 39 33 28 40 33 72 55 113 36 12 -18 9 700-850 TADV 7 4 9 6 5 4 5 1 -4 -10 -20 -33 0 27 5 -22 5 LAND (KM) 294 273 261 267 266 336 425 472 527 626 782 987 936 864 774 575 516 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.8 31.4 32.4 33.8 35.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.1 77.5 77.8 77.9 78.0 77.5 76.5 75.2 73.4 71.1 68.2 64.8 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 7 9 12 14 16 15 16 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 39 43 45 39 32 27 20 25 30 22 16 12 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. -4. -9. -16. -23. -32. -39. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 6. 9. 11. 15. 20. 25. 11. -1. -5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 15. 21. 28. 31. 34. 34. 36. 36. 34. 12. -6. -16. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.1 77.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.21 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.44 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.1% 10.4% 7.8% 4.1% 8.7% 11.4% 10.8% Logistic: 4.0% 17.6% 8.9% 3.0% 1.1% 6.1% 8.4% 6.7% Bayesian: 5.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 11.8% 6.6% 3.6% 1.8% 5.0% 6.6% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 53 56 60 66 73 76 79 79 81 81 79 57 39 29 37 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 54 60 67 70 73 73 75 75 73 51 33 23 31 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 54 61 64 67 67 69 69 67 45 27 17 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 45 52 55 58 58 60 60 58 36 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT