* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/14/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 62 65 63 57 52 48 43 39 35 30 26 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 62 65 63 57 52 48 43 39 35 30 26 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 53 56 58 59 55 49 43 39 34 30 26 22 19 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 4 7 13 8 7 12 11 18 20 24 30 45 44 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 0 7 6 4 4 6 3 1 2 0 6 1 SHEAR DIR 83 110 111 82 38 21 47 343 325 290 267 265 253 234 233 243 238 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 26.3 26.4 25.9 26.3 26.3 25.6 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 134 132 133 125 126 121 125 125 117 113 117 119 122 126 121 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 65 63 60 59 55 58 55 52 50 46 43 39 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 19 22 20 18 17 16 14 13 12 10 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 47 41 38 30 25 10 20 18 23 9 20 21 20 5 13 200 MB DIV 56 76 63 26 4 -17 -14 -20 6 5 4 2 8 24 6 35 28 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 0 -1 -1 4 2 6 4 4 6 3 5 LAND (KM) 936 976 1007 1040 1076 1145 1222 1295 1351 1407 1477 1565 1664 1799 1955 2070 1965 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.5 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.5 118.2 118.9 119.6 120.9 122.3 123.7 124.9 126.0 127.1 128.2 129.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 6 7 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 17. 20. 18. 12. 7. 3. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -25. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.3 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.75 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.72 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 38.7% 30.1% 22.6% 15.2% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 19.3% 16.9% 3.8% 5.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 19.5% 15.7% 8.8% 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##