* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/14/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 52 61 66 75 78 81 81 85 80 77 75 75 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 52 61 66 75 78 81 81 85 80 77 75 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 48 56 63 71 77 80 81 79 74 69 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 6 7 10 7 11 16 17 26 28 32 37 27 25 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -3 -2 -2 0 -4 2 0 1 0 3 2 2 2 10 SHEAR DIR 238 263 247 220 242 262 231 242 224 239 229 234 221 232 217 225 228 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 151 149 145 138 142 139 144 147 146 148 155 149 145 137 136 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 132 131 126 120 119 116 120 124 123 126 132 126 123 116 114 105 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 58 58 59 61 54 52 51 48 46 43 45 47 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 17 18 20 21 24 27 29 31 36 36 37 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR 21 0 -3 18 12 -16 1 -25 3 11 45 63 59 46 28 16 9 200 MB DIV 33 14 6 26 36 2 41 17 50 16 20 44 45 46 35 70 30 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 7 5 5 0 0 -2 -6 -16 -13 -19 5 -8 -6 3 LAND (KM) 489 441 364 304 265 247 314 340 392 449 583 743 901 1005 966 853 773 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.2 27.8 29.1 30.1 30.9 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.1 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.7 76.4 77.0 77.6 78.2 77.9 76.8 75.2 73.5 71.3 68.9 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 6 8 8 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 58 56 43 37 37 48 38 38 29 22 28 30 30 23 23 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 27. 29. 29. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 23. 21. 21. 20. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 31. 37. 45. 48. 51. 51. 55. 50. 47. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.5 75.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/14/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.3% 9.9% 7.1% 3.8% 8.5% 11.2% 14.3% Logistic: 1.7% 10.2% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 6.3% 12.8% 16.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.5% 4.9% 3.0% 1.5% 5.0% 8.2% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/14/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/14/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 45 52 61 66 75 78 81 81 85 80 77 75 75 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 48 57 62 71 74 77 77 81 76 73 71 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 42 51 56 65 68 71 71 75 70 67 65 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 41 46 55 58 61 61 65 60 57 55 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT