* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/13/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 45 53 58 62 63 63 65 66 67 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 45 53 58 62 63 63 65 66 67 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 40 45 49 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 11 11 14 7 10 7 8 8 20 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -4 0 -5 1 -4 4 -3 0 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 248 249 214 227 255 232 261 222 230 230 252 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 165 165 163 158 161 163 153 152 153 152 144 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 146 146 145 139 141 140 130 125 125 124 118 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 56 56 55 59 57 59 57 55 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 17 23 16 -9 6 -26 -13 -30 -31 -21 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 17 11 17 19 0 32 8 61 -6 12 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 1 2 3 0 5 0 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 324 355 372 379 307 156 67 30 25 48 105 172 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.6 27.7 28.9 29.8 30.3 30.7 31.0 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.4 75.0 75.6 76.4 77.1 78.5 79.7 80.5 81.0 80.9 80.4 79.5 78.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 93 98 92 92 76 66 70 42 37 37 32 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 20. 28. 33. 37. 38. 38. 40. 41. 42. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.7 74.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.49 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 90.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.61 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.16 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.6% 9.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 7.3% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 2.5% 9.8% 19.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.8% 9.0% 4.7% 2.6% 0.1% 0.9% 7.2% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/13/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 45 53 58 62 63 63 65 66 67 68 70 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 43 51 56 60 61 61 63 64 65 66 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 39 47 52 56 57 57 59 60 61 62 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 31 39 44 48 49 49 51 52 53 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT