* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/12/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 52 58 62 67 65 65 64 64 63 61 60 56 53 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 52 58 62 67 65 65 64 64 63 61 60 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 49 52 53 54 53 53 52 51 51 50 47 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 0 2 2 3 4 5 6 5 6 3 3 8 9 13 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 5 5 2 2 1 4 1 -2 1 -4 0 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 248 293 269 329 33 102 52 88 43 62 34 331 323 278 268 247 256 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.3 27.9 28.1 27.3 27.4 26.5 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.6 25.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 148 147 143 145 136 137 127 131 130 125 119 117 119 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 68 65 67 66 61 57 54 52 54 54 53 54 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 15 17 17 17 18 15 16 15 15 14 13 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -5 9 10 21 24 28 39 39 32 15 18 11 14 -3 1 -1 200 MB DIV 54 58 67 61 71 32 27 45 15 7 34 22 0 0 -3 -6 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -5 -1 1 0 -5 -2 -1 -1 0 2 3 5 0 1 LAND (KM) 798 809 834 877 928 1044 1122 1205 1315 1390 1428 1450 1498 1578 1662 1747 1834 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.8 113.8 114.8 115.7 117.6 119.3 121.0 122.7 124.1 125.1 125.7 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 12 11 10 16 7 8 3 14 8 1 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 23. 27. 32. 30. 30. 29. 29. 28. 26. 25. 21. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/12/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 11.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.99 11.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.53 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 46.2% 41.2% 31.2% 18.5% 40.2% 46.4% 42.3% Logistic: 16.4% 41.7% 30.6% 18.0% 2.8% 18.3% 6.0% 4.5% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 30.2% 24.3% 16.5% 7.1% 19.5% 17.5% 15.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/12/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##