* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/09/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 54 51 43 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 54 51 43 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 56 55 51 44 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 18 22 26 38 50 67 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 3 2 2 4 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 154 170 183 188 194 206 219 224 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 26.8 26.2 25.4 24.9 22.3 17.8 15.7 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 124 118 111 108 93 79 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 106 101 96 94 84 74 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -52.6 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 45 43 38 34 43 50 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 16 15 16 16 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -42 -45 -22 -35 -45 -77 -68 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 35 32 38 26 47 48 23 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -9 -16 -25 -18 -34 -49 -39 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1241 1117 1003 942 914 1074 1427 1136 583 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 37.3 38.6 39.9 41.2 43.8 46.9 50.4 53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.3 48.5 47.7 46.1 44.6 40.0 33.9 26.4 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 18 19 24 28 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -13. -24. -29. -34. -40. -46. -54. -60. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -12. -24. -41. -44. -49. -53. -60. -68. -72. -73. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 35.9 49.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/09/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.47 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 436.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.7% 8.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 3.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.2% 3.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/09/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/09/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 56 54 51 43 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 52 49 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 49 46 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 40 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT