* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/07/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 33 32 30 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 33 32 30 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 31 29 27 26 24 22 20 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 12 14 19 28 37 43 47 49 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -3 -1 0 -2 -4 0 -1 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 241 233 235 253 242 252 244 255 258 257 255 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.8 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 108 107 107 107 111 113 116 121 122 124 123 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.5 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 33 34 33 31 30 29 29 31 33 39 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 13 11 9 8 6 6 6 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -45 -42 -39 -55 -50 -44 -40 -37 -34 -12 -13 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -13 -8 6 18 12 11 2 16 21 27 12 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 2 4 3 3 1 3 3 6 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1339 1423 1486 1560 1637 1803 1936 1735 1565 1416 1295 1181 1081 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.8 129.0 130.1 131.3 132.4 134.7 136.7 138.7 140.4 141.9 143.2 144.5 145.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -11. -21. -30. -36. -41. -43. -46. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -17. -23. -31. -35. -41. -46. -50. -54. -60. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.2 127.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##