* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 56 50 43 38 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 56 50 43 38 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 61 55 50 42 37 33 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 3 6 7 7 14 16 23 35 43 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -2 4 -5 -1 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 317 73 160 224 229 255 261 264 260 268 257 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.1 23.4 23.4 23.6 24.2 24.2 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 104 96 96 98 105 105 108 111 114 118 121 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 42 40 38 34 33 31 31 30 30 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 16 14 13 10 9 8 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -24 -24 -24 -41 -33 -49 -54 -51 -43 -40 -40 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 -27 -24 -17 -1 -6 9 0 9 6 9 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -4 3 4 0 5 0 3 7 2 4 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 990 1056 1129 1215 1303 1484 1619 1785 1931 1871 1703 1540 1371 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.8 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.1 125.1 126.2 127.2 129.3 131.5 133.7 135.6 137.2 138.9 140.6 142.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -26. -28. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -15. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -17. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -27. -32. -39. -45. -51. -59. -65. -69. -72. -74. -78. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.6 123.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 661.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##