* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 46 49 54 59 65 66 68 65 54 50 48 47 48 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 46 49 54 59 65 66 68 65 54 50 48 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 43 44 48 52 56 58 58 54 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 36 27 12 6 10 9 10 9 22 35 48 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -1 -5 -1 -6 -1 -2 1 1 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 213 214 219 68 79 95 175 217 212 215 215 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.6 29.2 28.5 29.1 28.5 27.6 27.4 25.2 22.9 18.7 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 147 157 145 154 144 131 130 109 95 80 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 128 132 141 129 134 121 110 110 94 85 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 6 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 44 44 42 41 43 47 48 42 39 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 18 19 18 19 20 21 21 24 26 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 18 9 -5 -21 -44 -48 -30 -17 -20 -16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -4 -20 -22 -20 -18 -4 20 35 30 59 99 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 14 9 0 0 -3 -10 -1 -4 -3 -16 -31 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2209 2347 2276 2129 1985 1747 1534 1327 1129 986 1006 1220 1527 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.8 28.8 29.7 30.6 32.0 33.5 35.3 37.5 40.0 42.8 46.1 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.1 39.3 40.5 41.8 43.2 45.9 47.8 48.4 47.3 45.1 41.6 36.9 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 15 14 12 10 10 14 17 22 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 16 19 15 18 15 9 8 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 15 CX,CY: -6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -19. -23. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 14. 19. 25. 26. 28. 25. 14. 10. 8. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.7 38.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.48 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 2.1% 2.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.6% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.1% 0.8% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 45 46 49 54 59 65 66 68 65 54 50 48 47 48 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 47 52 57 63 64 66 63 52 48 46 45 46 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 42 47 52 58 59 61 58 47 43 41 40 41 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 39 44 50 51 53 50 39 35 33 32 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT