* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 77 75 73 66 54 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 77 75 73 57 46 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 77 73 59 42 33 26 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 26 38 43 53 56 47 47 52 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 10 5 6 10 0 0 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 213 212 227 222 213 202 210 216 223 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 26.8 25.6 21.8 18.0 15.9 9.8 11.2 9.5 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 126 115 90 78 74 69 70 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 119 112 102 83 73 70 67 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -49.1 -47.8 -48.4 -49.5 -48.6 -47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.8 1.5 1.9 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 40 45 51 50 48 50 53 51 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 38 39 44 48 47 35 28 22 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 46 48 62 109 193 220 212 212 210 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 107 103 111 130 153 68 95 61 56 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 12 11 9 32 56 -56 -68 -56 -45 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 50 168 271 267 204 -11 83 28 519 1072 1496 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 44.6 48.5 51.6 54.2 56.8 59.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.7 74.0 72.2 70.0 67.9 63.8 60.0 55.1 48.2 40.3 32.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 21 23 24 24 23 23 25 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -25. -33. -41. -46. -50. -53. -57. -58. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -23. -26. -30. -32. -34. -38. -42. -47. -50. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 10. -3. -13. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -26. -49. -68. -82. -90. -96.-103.-111.-117.-122.-128. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 35.1 75.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 461.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 4( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 77 75 73 57 46 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 76 74 58 47 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 72 56 45 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 52 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT