* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 53 53 50 48 47 46 46 48 49 49 48 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 53 53 50 48 47 46 46 48 49 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 47 48 47 47 46 42 38 35 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 13 21 22 18 8 4 16 17 23 19 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 3 4 1 13 7 1 -2 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 269 284 292 307 298 253 265 263 263 266 257 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 152 152 152 153 157 153 155 153 153 155 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 61 62 58 54 54 55 55 57 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 13 14 14 11 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 36 47 53 60 46 22 18 8 4 -11 -17 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 76 84 89 92 57 -1 5 31 36 57 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -4 -3 2 9 11 14 14 7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1335 1275 1216 1149 1085 943 777 636 634 765 848 1044 1317 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.5 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.3 146.0 146.7 147.5 148.4 150.4 152.8 155.7 158.9 162.3 165.6 168.8 172.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 11 14 15 17 17 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 25 27 35 50 57 57 28 43 61 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 13. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.7 145.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.08 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.65 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.49 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 22.8% 22.2% 18.2% 12.2% 20.3% 25.7% 26.0% Logistic: 5.7% 9.1% 5.6% 2.8% 0.6% 3.2% 2.8% 7.3% Bayesian: 6.3% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 8.5% 11.6% 9.6% 7.1% 4.3% 7.9% 9.7% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##