* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 32 31 33 37 41 44 49 53 57 60 63 57 40 38 40 V (KT) LAND 35 32 32 31 33 37 41 44 49 53 57 60 63 57 40 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 27 26 25 26 29 33 37 42 46 47 44 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 32 33 34 28 5 3 6 10 8 20 22 26 39 68 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 0 -3 0 -3 -2 2 -2 3 1 10 13 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 215 216 218 216 213 78 82 172 196 218 228 224 217 223 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.4 28.8 28.0 28.9 27.9 27.4 25.3 23.4 20.5 16.9 15.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 125 130 135 144 150 138 150 135 130 110 98 86 77 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 113 118 123 130 134 120 127 114 109 96 88 79 73 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 45 44 45 44 42 41 45 45 43 48 55 50 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 18 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 22 24 29 30 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 20 14 21 5 -24 -46 -40 -41 -38 -29 -39 -26 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 13 4 0 -14 -35 -19 -5 24 40 51 42 100 47 70 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 13 20 13 6 -1 -2 -8 -1 -2 6 8 -14 28 -92 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1986 2077 2172 2291 2412 2142 1883 1654 1446 1242 1090 1085 1316 1423 844 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.6 26.6 27.6 29.4 31.0 32.6 34.4 36.5 38.9 41.7 44.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.1 37.9 38.9 40.0 42.3 44.9 46.9 47.5 47.0 45.0 41.4 36.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 14 14 14 13 10 10 12 17 22 27 28 27 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 5 10 11 15 16 10 18 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. -1. 1. 3. 9. 9. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -4. -2. 2. 6. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 22. 5. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.8 36.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 33.3 to 3.1 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 32 31 33 37 41 44 49 53 57 60 63 57 40 38 40 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 35 39 43 46 51 55 59 62 65 59 42 40 42 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 32 36 40 43 48 52 56 59 62 56 39 37 39 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 35 38 43 47 51 54 57 51 34 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT