* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 39 38 39 39 37 37 35 33 28 32 29 26 23 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 39 38 39 39 37 37 35 33 28 32 29 26 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 36 34 33 34 35 36 36 36 37 38 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 29 33 35 33 10 8 15 19 23 30 35 33 45 54 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 0 0 -1 3 0 -1 1 -3 0 -1 6 3 11 15 SHEAR DIR 203 206 212 213 213 214 199 147 144 167 188 218 221 220 208 211 219 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 28.2 28.9 28.0 28.7 27.7 27.1 25.0 23.3 19.6 17.3 15.0 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 121 125 128 141 151 138 148 133 126 107 97 82 76 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 110 113 116 127 135 121 127 112 106 93 86 75 72 69 68 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -1.1 -1.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 43 41 42 42 41 40 46 45 47 55 59 62 56 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 17 16 16 17 15 13 12 10 9 9 14 17 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 41 35 30 25 23 21 11 -29 -55 -38 -71 -61 -58 -48 -50 -22 40 200 MB DIV 34 37 14 0 -7 -23 -25 -25 -14 27 38 31 55 84 71 77 68 700-850 TADV 17 19 20 14 13 6 5 1 -9 -7 -7 7 16 5 14 -63 -85 LAND (KM) 1884 1953 2026 2112 2200 2414 2173 1900 1628 1372 1153 1001 1006 1219 1530 1160 759 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.6 25.4 27.2 29.1 30.9 32.9 35.0 37.2 39.6 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.9 36.6 37.4 38.2 40.1 42.3 44.7 46.7 47.9 47.5 45.5 42.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 13 12 11 12 16 20 23 23 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 5 9 13 18 10 16 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -25. -31. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -22. -23. -15. -12. -8. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12. -17. -13. -16. -19. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.3 35.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 42 40 39 38 39 39 37 37 35 33 28 32 29 26 23 18HR AGO 45 44 42 40 39 38 39 39 37 37 35 33 28 32 29 26 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 38 37 38 38 36 36 34 32 27 31 28 25 22 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 34 34 32 32 30 28 23 27 24 21 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT