* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 36 45 50 57 59 58 57 54 55 57 60 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 36 45 50 57 59 58 57 54 55 57 60 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 37 37 36 33 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 3 1 5 7 6 5 13 15 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 0 0 3 3 6 5 7 5 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 139 152 149 70 294 288 321 263 270 243 277 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.7 29.1 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 157 155 155 152 152 152 157 152 153 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 64 64 62 59 58 57 55 61 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 13 12 14 13 11 11 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 12 11 20 40 46 39 26 27 4 16 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 60 45 69 79 83 33 11 20 -3 32 63 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 0 3 7 18 16 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1605 1551 1498 1444 1391 1263 1104 932 735 558 540 684 706 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.4 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.9 142.6 143.3 144.0 144.7 146.2 148.0 150.1 152.6 155.5 158.4 161.3 164.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 14 15 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 45 59 60 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 37. 40. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 20. 25. 32. 34. 33. 32. 29. 30. 32. 35. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 141.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.95 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.97 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.9% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0% 29.7% 38.2% 0.0% Logistic: 17.8% 64.2% 48.8% 35.0% 5.3% 33.5% 7.9% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 32.6% 25.2% 11.7% 1.8% 21.1% 15.4% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##