* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 40 39 38 39 41 42 41 42 41 41 38 29 22 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 40 39 38 39 41 42 41 42 41 41 38 29 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 39 37 36 34 35 37 39 41 42 40 36 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 24 28 32 33 21 7 8 16 17 26 27 39 46 67 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 6 4 1 2 0 -1 3 2 1 1 1 3 5 7 14 SHEAR DIR 205 206 210 214 213 212 206 174 142 150 168 178 197 207 215 221 222 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.6 28.7 28.2 28.0 28.8 27.9 27.3 26.7 24.6 21.2 16.6 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 120 121 125 132 148 140 137 148 135 128 122 105 88 77 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 108 110 113 119 133 124 118 125 112 107 103 92 81 72 69 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 42 41 42 40 43 40 41 42 47 50 52 59 62 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 17 16 17 18 17 16 14 14 13 14 16 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 30 25 22 14 24 -17 -48 -57 -52 -41 -7 21 38 12 5 200 MB DIV 42 23 27 11 4 8 -26 -23 -13 -8 27 60 42 71 69 63 70 700-850 TADV 18 19 17 18 12 12 6 1 2 -8 0 3 9 20 101 36 13 LAND (KM) 1824 1885 1942 2026 2110 2308 2343 2074 1839 1622 1417 1230 1059 966 1066 1374 1249 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.6 24.3 26.1 27.9 29.7 31.3 32.9 34.6 36.4 38.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.2 35.8 36.6 37.4 39.2 41.1 43.3 45.3 46.9 47.8 47.7 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 12 11 10 9 10 13 19 26 28 26 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 2 2 4 10 19 12 10 17 9 7 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -16. -22. -29. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -16. -15. -18. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -7. -16. -23. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.5 34.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.47 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.21 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 8.9% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 40 39 38 39 41 42 41 42 41 41 38 29 22 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 40 39 38 39 41 42 41 42 41 41 38 29 22 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 36 37 39 40 39 40 39 39 36 27 20 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 34 36 37 36 37 36 36 33 24 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT