* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 41 46 51 59 61 61 59 58 61 63 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 41 46 51 59 61 61 59 58 61 63 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 33 34 34 32 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 3 0 4 2 4 5 6 6 13 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 7 4 0 4 6 5 4 10 7 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 223 259 48 155 217 241 257 300 253 278 247 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 154 153 152 151 150 153 154 151 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 59 58 60 59 59 55 55 55 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 13 15 15 15 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 11 11 14 34 36 37 34 31 11 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 82 84 63 51 64 63 49 18 30 6 31 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -1 -1 -4 0 0 7 9 18 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1650 1590 1532 1479 1428 1332 1209 1054 846 641 492 558 680 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.0 141.8 142.5 143.2 143.8 144.9 146.3 148.0 150.3 152.9 155.9 159.4 162.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 10 12 14 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 20 20 21 21 21 19 21 33 62 61 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 40. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 21. 26. 34. 36. 36. 34. 33. 36. 38. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 141.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.94 10.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.83 7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.57 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.61 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 45.0% 29.7% 0.0% 0.0% 33.8% 50.3% 0.0% Logistic: 21.0% 66.5% 54.0% 41.9% 10.1% 27.9% 5.5% 14.3% Bayesian: 1.8% 3.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 38.4% 28.3% 14.1% 3.4% 20.7% 18.7% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/04/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##