* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 91 90 87 82 79 81 71 58 37 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 91 90 87 82 79 81 59 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 90 90 89 83 81 82 72 49 35 32 28 29 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 21 22 16 12 12 23 42 51 61 58 49 51 40 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -1 0 2 2 7 2 5 1 0 2 3 0 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 152 165 172 174 177 258 228 225 213 208 201 218 224 231 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.6 27.1 26.1 20.1 18.5 13.3 11.2 9.8 10.1 11.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 153 150 142 132 128 119 84 80 72 70 69 69 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 127 125 119 114 112 106 78 75 69 68 67 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 -49.9 -49.9 -48.4 -48.6 -48.8 -48.1 -48.1 -48.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 8 7 10 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 44 39 39 38 41 44 53 51 55 50 55 51 62 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 34 36 35 34 35 38 47 47 45 36 29 23 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 0 19 37 61 65 73 97 140 170 205 229 223 161 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 46 46 57 54 34 77 96 109 84 68 96 55 25 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 6 -4 2 -1 1 -5 -88 -69 -80 -41 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 157 167 129 96 60 42 122 303 180 -23 -2 453 953 1483 1183 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.0 32.6 34.1 36.0 38.6 41.9 45.7 49.4 53.1 56.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.7 79.7 79.3 79.0 77.3 74.4 70.3 65.8 61.1 55.6 49.1 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 13 18 22 24 26 27 27 25 24 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 63 57 38 34 24 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -14. -21. -30. -37. -43. -49. -55. -59. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -27. -30. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. 3. 13. 13. 10. -3. -14. -21. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. -0. -3. -8. -11. -9. -19. -32. -53. -71. -86. -97.-102.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.2 79.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.87 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 706.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.12 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 12.5% 9.2% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 6.0% 5.9% 3.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 6.2% 5.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 12( 32) 10( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 91 90 87 82 79 81 59 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 90 89 86 81 78 80 58 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 86 83 78 75 77 55 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 76 71 68 70 48 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 63 60 62 40 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 70 65 62 64 42 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 66 63 65 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS