* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082019 09/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 41 42 44 44 49 51 51 49 50 50 51 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 41 42 44 44 49 51 51 49 50 50 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 38 37 36 35 34 35 36 39 41 43 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 8 14 16 20 28 27 12 2 11 16 10 23 35 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 3 4 0 2 0 1 0 0 -4 -4 0 3 3 6 SHEAR DIR 233 228 211 204 213 216 211 198 215 227 315 90 145 196 208 221 227 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 27.1 28.0 29.0 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.5 25.2 23.8 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 117 118 118 117 117 126 137 152 139 139 130 131 109 99 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 106 106 106 105 106 114 123 135 122 120 110 110 94 87 74 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 55 51 47 43 42 43 41 42 41 39 43 46 50 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 20 21 19 18 16 16 18 16 15 13 13 13 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR 45 32 35 43 51 32 28 12 8 4 -40 -75 -71 -39 -48 -67 -42 200 MB DIV 37 47 38 39 38 7 17 8 8 -23 -21 -34 -2 39 58 84 95 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 7 10 12 17 20 8 8 3 -2 -2 -7 4 16 56 LAND (KM) 1646 1690 1735 1776 1818 1906 2014 2154 2329 2274 2002 1721 1468 1242 1047 978 1045 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.6 22.9 24.8 26.8 28.7 30.7 32.7 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.1 33.6 34.1 34.5 35.4 36.5 37.8 39.3 40.8 42.5 44.5 45.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 8 10 11 12 12 13 12 11 12 15 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 6 6 2 1 6 12 18 9 10 6 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 19. 21. 21. 19. 20. 20. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 32.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 EIGHT 09/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.70 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.47 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.8% 9.7% 6.9% 3.5% 7.6% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.6% 4.4% 2.6% 1.2% 2.9% 2.9% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 EIGHT 09/04/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 41 42 44 44 49 51 51 49 50 50 51 50 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 38 39 41 41 46 48 48 46 47 47 48 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 32 33 35 35 40 42 42 40 41 41 42 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 24 25 27 27 32 34 34 32 33 33 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT