* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 121 119 118 121 118 118 110 105 103 100 97 84 66 54 39 17 V (KT) LAND 125 121 119 118 121 118 118 110 105 103 100 97 72 47 40 25 N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 121 119 119 119 119 118 110 99 94 85 71 46 36 36 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 13 11 8 6 14 15 23 28 39 54 51 56 51 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -7 -8 -4 -1 -3 -1 1 6 4 -2 -3 1 8 9 SHEAR DIR 286 277 291 273 249 188 161 177 191 218 215 215 207 216 218 236 251 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.4 28.3 26.8 19.7 19.2 14.3 11.0 10.5 10.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 167 166 164 163 157 144 144 126 83 82 73 70 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 144 141 140 138 137 133 124 126 112 77 76 70 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -49.3 -49.5 -49.1 -49.4 -48.8 -48.9 -48.8 -48.1 -48.5 -48.6 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 11 10 9 11 7 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 63 62 60 59 52 45 41 38 42 43 47 44 50 45 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 32 32 37 36 40 38 37 40 42 47 45 39 37 33 24 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 22 22 33 -1 22 50 83 92 84 117 154 196 207 199 189 200 MB DIV 17 9 12 48 49 42 58 66 72 92 102 133 89 99 60 59 58 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 1 4 7 0 -1 -4 -6 -7 -10 -47 33 -113 -36 -19 LAND (KM) 164 145 131 130 127 114 177 125 90 138 323 206 -33 -7 380 957 1517 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.1 29.2 30.6 32.0 33.7 35.6 38.3 41.7 45.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.6 78.8 79.0 79.2 79.7 79.6 78.8 77.0 74.2 70.6 66.1 61.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 5 5 6 7 10 13 17 22 25 26 27 27 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 86 86 84 73 66 54 58 45 25 31 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -2. -7. -15. -26. -37. -45. -53. -60. -68. -77. -83. -88. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -3. -1. -0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 8. 6. 5. 8. 11. 16. 13. 4. 1. -5. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -4. -7. -7. -15. -20. -22. -25. -28. -41. -59. -71. -86.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 26.8 78.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 33( 58) 34( 73) 32( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 83 62( 94) 62( 98) 38( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 121 119 118 121 118 118 110 105 103 100 97 72 47 40 25 DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 122 121 124 121 121 113 108 106 103 100 75 50 43 28 DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 120 123 120 120 112 107 105 102 99 74 49 42 27 DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 118 115 115 107 102 100 97 94 69 44 37 22 DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 103 103 95 90 88 85 82 57 32 25 DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 121 112 106 103 102 102 94 89 87 84 81 56 31 24 DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 121 119 110 104 100 100 92 87 85 82 79 54 29 22 DIS DIS