* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 120 118 116 115 114 114 111 107 98 98 98 95 77 60 42 22 V (KT) LAND 125 120 118 116 115 114 114 111 107 98 98 98 95 76 47 29 N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 118 115 114 115 115 114 114 105 93 85 82 64 49 38 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 19 12 10 8 14 16 28 30 41 48 59 55 52 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -4 -9 -6 -5 0 0 -3 3 2 1 -1 2 9 7 SHEAR DIR 324 298 280 286 277 241 175 181 174 211 205 218 216 214 210 236 247 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.7 29.2 28.2 28.4 27.8 26.5 19.2 15.4 11.1 11.1 9.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 165 161 162 154 140 144 137 123 82 75 71 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 142 141 139 136 137 130 120 124 121 109 77 72 69 69 68 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -49.4 -49.5 -48.9 -49.2 -49.3 -48.9 -48.7 -47.5 -47.4 -47.7 -47.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.3 2.6 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 9 11 9 9 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 61 59 54 51 42 38 42 46 50 43 42 40 55 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 32 32 35 37 39 38 36 38 42 48 42 37 31 23 850 MB ENV VOR 29 33 22 17 22 5 7 23 84 88 79 124 163 215 185 195 205 200 MB DIV 40 21 2 17 43 20 61 38 93 57 96 114 116 75 68 74 48 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 0 0 7 3 -1 7 -11 7 15 24 -27 -99 -96 -82 LAND (KM) 164 140 118 111 104 86 114 144 101 47 259 262 127 48 233 751 1294 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.7 30.0 31.3 32.9 34.6 36.8 39.5 43.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.6 78.9 79.1 79.3 79.8 80.1 79.6 78.2 76.0 72.9 68.8 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 6 7 8 11 14 19 23 27 29 29 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 86 86 84 78 69 47 50 42 25 25 26 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -7. -16. -27. -37. -46. -53. -58. -66. -75. -81. -86. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -6. -3. -0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -5. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 7. 3. 6. 11. 17. 8. 1. -7. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -14. -18. -27. -27. -27. -30. -48. -65. -83.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 26.8 78.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 509.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 32( 58) 31( 71) 30( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 87 59( 95) 50( 97) 42( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 120 118 116 115 114 114 111 107 98 98 98 95 76 47 29 DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 122 120 119 118 118 115 111 102 102 102 99 80 51 33 DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 119 118 117 117 114 110 101 101 101 98 79 50 32 DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 114 113 113 110 106 97 97 97 94 75 46 28 DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 105 105 102 98 89 89 89 86 67 38 20 DIS IN 6HR 125 120 111 105 102 97 97 94 90 81 81 81 78 59 30 DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 120 118 109 103 99 99 96 92 83 83 83 80 61 32 DIS DIS