* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 155 152 147 142 138 128 125 116 109 103 96 91 90 92 83 64 43 V (KT) LAND 155 152 147 142 138 128 125 116 109 103 96 91 90 92 83 53 32 V (KT) LGEM 155 150 145 140 135 128 120 110 107 103 96 86 81 76 59 41 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 10 10 16 12 9 13 17 25 24 33 46 69 56 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 1 0 -2 -7 -5 -2 -4 -2 -2 6 10 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 314 312 321 320 303 289 255 239 187 180 190 208 215 226 212 223 241 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.2 28.7 29.1 29.0 28.1 27.0 26.8 24.2 17.6 12.3 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 168 168 167 153 145 152 152 139 127 126 105 79 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 145 143 143 140 129 122 129 128 119 111 113 95 75 70 69 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 -49.8 -49.6 -50.0 -49.6 -49.1 -48.3 -47.8 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 7 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 64 66 68 68 62 60 54 49 43 39 45 47 48 40 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 28 28 30 31 35 35 36 37 36 36 39 44 45 37 28 850 MB ENV VOR 21 5 7 26 31 16 27 3 30 66 105 110 108 172 206 200 176 200 MB DIV 43 14 9 28 17 15 38 28 67 68 69 75 83 118 93 50 31 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 2 2 7 0 -1 -4 -1 21 69 -44 -34 -75 LAND (KM) 234 194 154 129 104 83 80 78 151 88 55 93 330 234 83 60 596 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.4 28.3 29.4 30.8 32.3 33.9 35.7 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.7 78.1 78.5 78.8 79.0 79.4 79.8 80.2 79.9 79.0 77.3 74.7 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 4 5 6 8 10 12 17 23 28 30 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 70 75 79 80 78 71 47 35 50 34 19 7 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -18. -32. -51. -66. -80. -91. -97.-103.-109.-116.-121.-123. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -10. -5. -1. 3. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. 11. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 10. 16. 15. 4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -17. -27. -30. -39. -46. -52. -59. -64. -65. -63. -72. -91.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 155. LAT, LON: 26.6 77.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 155.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 512.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -10.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 77 74( 94) 50( 97) 43( 98) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 94 94(100) 87(100) 67(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 155 152 147 142 138 128 125 116 109 103 96 91 90 92 83 53 32 18HR AGO 155 154 149 144 140 130 127 118 111 105 98 93 92 94 85 55 34 12HR AGO 155 152 151 146 142 132 129 120 113 107 100 95 94 96 87 57 36 6HR AGO 155 149 146 145 141 131 128 119 112 106 99 94 93 95 86 56 35 NOW 155 146 140 137 136 126 123 114 107 101 94 89 88 90 81 51 30 IN 6HR 155 152 143 137 134 128 125 116 109 103 96 91 90 92 83 53 32 IN 12HR 155 152 147 138 132 128 125 116 109 103 96 91 90 92 83 53 32