* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 126 124 124 121 121 115 114 115 111 108 108 101 95 92 80 V (KT) LAND 130 128 126 124 124 121 121 115 114 115 111 108 108 101 95 92 80 V (KT) LGEM 130 128 126 123 122 121 119 115 112 107 103 98 90 78 68 60 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 7 8 12 10 14 11 12 19 24 35 39 42 52 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -4 -3 -8 -2 -4 0 -3 4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 305 292 326 337 303 317 303 281 233 209 187 190 202 222 210 216 223 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.3 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 160 162 162 164 163 159 155 156 144 144 141 142 122 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 136 136 137 136 137 137 134 130 132 122 122 119 120 104 100 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 -49.8 -49.8 -49.8 -49.2 -49.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.8 1.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 10 3 2 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 61 59 61 64 66 64 68 61 60 54 52 45 41 42 40 31 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 23 26 29 32 32 33 37 37 37 40 39 39 43 40 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 3 11 19 5 30 17 28 3 47 100 90 63 71 97 101 200 MB DIV 20 14 4 17 32 12 35 2 50 42 52 60 83 74 58 60 13 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -5 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 0 4 4 -9 -13 -3 0 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 536 460 384 328 273 194 166 161 151 178 141 88 77 238 422 351 303 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.4 28.0 29.0 30.3 31.7 33.2 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.5 76.2 76.7 77.3 78.1 78.5 78.8 79.2 79.5 79.0 77.6 75.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 5 5 3 3 4 6 6 9 10 11 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 57 54 56 58 56 53 57 60 67 69 46 28 30 40 21 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -32. -42. -51. -57. -61. -65. -70. -73. -76. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 10. 12. 17. 17. 15. 18. 16. 14. 18. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -6. -9. -9. -15. -16. -15. -19. -22. -22. -29. -35. -38. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 26.2 74.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 559.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 40( 66) 36( 78) 34( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 57 62( 84) 68( 95) 66( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 128 126 124 124 121 121 115 114 115 111 108 108 101 95 92 80 18HR AGO 130 129 127 125 125 122 122 116 115 116 112 109 109 102 96 93 81 12HR AGO 130 127 126 124 124 121 121 115 114 115 111 108 108 101 95 92 80 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 120 117 117 111 110 111 107 104 104 97 91 88 76 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 108 108 102 101 102 98 95 95 88 82 79 67 IN 6HR 130 128 119 113 110 109 109 103 102 103 99 96 96 89 83 80 68 IN 12HR 130 128 126 117 111 107 107 101 100 101 97 94 94 87 81 78 66