* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 97 99 100 101 104 109 109 111 112 107 104 102 99 98 98 V (KT) LAND 90 94 97 99 100 101 104 109 109 111 98 61 40 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 99 101 102 104 110 114 113 111 107 61 39 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 4 8 11 6 10 6 11 7 13 11 18 10 18 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 4 0 1 1 1 3 4 6 SHEAR DIR 228 228 232 246 278 323 309 323 302 286 294 296 298 281 289 239 234 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 160 156 153 160 163 166 165 167 168 168 167 166 162 156 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 143 139 135 140 142 143 141 141 142 146 141 139 134 129 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 7 7 3 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 59 57 59 60 63 61 62 59 61 61 63 60 60 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 15 16 17 19 23 24 27 29 27 27 27 26 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -40 -31 -24 -35 -10 4 20 6 14 3 9 -15 -10 -15 45 63 200 MB DIV 23 22 47 30 14 13 15 23 -7 19 10 19 31 59 36 94 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 -1 -3 0 -2 0 0 2 0 9 6 11 8 0 LAND (KM) 437 495 559 600 620 593 435 283 164 65 -3 -47 -69 -82 -54 -17 -40 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.6 70.4 71.3 72.1 73.9 75.7 77.2 78.4 79.4 80.2 80.8 81.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 51 57 46 38 59 53 55 54 57 50 51 38 19 25 39 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 14. 16. 13. 11. 10. 8. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 14. 19. 19. 21. 22. 17. 15. 12. 9. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 23.5 68.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.77 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.39 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.22 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.7% 23.4% 19.3% 16.5% 6.7% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.2% 33.4% 21.9% 11.3% 6.8% 21.3% 12.9% 6.7% Bayesian: 22.1% 46.0% 20.2% 6.8% 3.2% 6.8% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 34.3% 20.5% 11.5% 5.6% 12.9% 4.7% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 20( 30) 22( 45) 23( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 9( 12) 4( 15) 9( 23) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 97 99 100 101 104 109 109 111 98 61 40 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 90 89 92 94 95 96 99 104 104 106 93 56 35 26 23 22 22 12HR AGO 90 87 86 88 89 90 93 98 98 100 87 50 29 20 17 16 16 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 82 85 90 90 92 79 42 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 72 75 80 80 82 69 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 75 78 83 83 85 72 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 94 97 88 82 78 81 86 86 88 75 38 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS