* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 80 84 87 91 93 97 100 104 105 101 101 99 95 93 89 V (KT) LAND 75 77 80 84 87 91 93 97 100 104 105 73 45 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 79 82 86 92 98 101 103 105 101 73 44 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 5 6 12 10 16 7 11 9 13 10 15 10 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -4 -6 -4 -4 -2 -4 0 -3 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 198 190 239 288 311 300 336 311 291 276 261 270 253 252 219 213 204 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 158 153 156 158 161 164 158 159 160 165 166 162 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 144 142 142 135 137 137 138 140 133 133 134 138 137 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 57 58 57 59 60 64 64 65 58 58 53 50 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 14 15 16 17 20 22 24 26 25 25 25 24 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -38 -40 -39 -29 -34 -7 -3 14 0 15 -4 12 -29 -1 7 20 200 MB DIV 50 40 22 7 41 17 28 3 14 11 19 14 27 34 51 48 46 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 1 3 -1 -8 -3 -1 0 0 -1 4 8 5 0 12 LAND (KM) 363 406 469 534 603 659 581 412 258 133 32 -28 -78 -77 -96 -124 -182 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.2 26.1 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.4 68.1 68.8 69.6 70.4 72.3 74.2 75.9 77.5 78.9 80.1 80.9 81.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 72 44 46 52 57 40 60 55 53 58 44 39 26 8 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 22. 25. 29. 30. 26. 26. 24. 20. 18. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.1 67.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.86 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.40 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 25.8% 19.4% 17.0% 7.3% 13.6% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 28.7% 18.8% 11.1% 7.0% 18.2% 16.6% 12.7% Bayesian: 1.8% 11.9% 4.0% 0.7% 0.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.1% Consensus: 7.2% 22.1% 14.1% 9.6% 4.9% 11.3% 10.3% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 10( 20) 12( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 4( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 80 84 87 91 93 97 100 104 105 73 45 33 29 27 27 18HR AGO 75 74 77 81 84 88 90 94 97 101 102 70 42 30 26 24 24 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 78 82 84 88 91 95 96 64 36 24 20 18 18 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 72 74 78 81 85 86 54 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT