* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 80 84 88 93 95 99 98 102 100 98 95 93 88 85 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 80 84 88 93 95 99 98 102 87 50 41 39 34 28 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 80 83 86 91 96 101 105 108 108 103 52 42 46 49 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 9 9 3 7 10 7 7 5 6 8 9 10 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -1 -2 -4 -2 -5 -1 -5 -3 -4 1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 222 229 230 201 199 253 281 346 299 317 271 289 247 275 223 275 215 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.0 29.9 30.3 30.0 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 157 161 157 153 155 158 160 162 150 166 169 166 164 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 144 147 148 142 137 137 139 139 139 127 139 144 136 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 6 9 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 54 56 56 59 61 67 65 71 68 70 65 62 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 18 18 21 22 22 20 19 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -30 -36 -36 -36 -40 -30 -34 -10 -16 12 1 34 7 26 -2 -1 200 MB DIV 5 15 21 33 39 21 23 12 20 4 41 16 55 15 53 22 1 700-850 TADV 5 8 6 5 0 3 3 -3 1 0 0 -1 2 3 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 84 178 278 328 384 518 630 613 412 235 98 -10 -81 13 18 16 -18 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.1 21.0 22.0 22.9 24.4 25.6 26.4 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.4 67.1 67.8 68.5 70.1 71.9 73.9 75.9 77.8 79.4 80.7 81.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 68 81 83 65 48 56 38 60 56 52 49 33 11 43 50 44 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 6. 10. 10. 9. 5. 3. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 23. 25. 29. 28. 32. 30. 28. 25. 23. 18. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.2 65.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.69 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.47 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.64 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.29 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.39 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.46 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.0% 37.3% 29.1% 25.4% 7.9% 24.4% 26.1% 20.8% Logistic: 10.4% 35.4% 26.2% 23.0% 11.3% 30.1% 21.7% 30.5% Bayesian: 4.7% 23.5% 7.2% 1.1% 0.4% 3.7% 2.8% 0.3% Consensus: 14.0% 32.1% 20.8% 16.5% 6.5% 19.4% 16.9% 17.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 9( 18) 11( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 1( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 78 80 84 88 93 95 99 98 102 87 50 41 39 34 28 18HR AGO 70 69 73 75 79 83 88 90 94 93 97 82 45 36 34 29 23 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 72 76 81 83 87 86 90 75 38 29 27 22 16 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 68 73 75 79 78 82 67 30 21 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT