* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 77 80 86 92 96 99 98 102 99 100 95 93 89 83 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 77 80 86 92 96 99 98 102 99 100 72 50 43 33 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 75 78 81 89 95 103 108 109 108 105 94 67 47 43 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 12 8 7 8 3 8 5 10 6 12 8 16 12 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -5 -2 -3 -1 -6 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 249 224 227 223 193 265 1 306 353 300 308 272 264 259 223 224 186 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.2 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 152 154 156 159 155 152 158 156 159 153 137 143 142 147 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 143 144 145 146 140 135 139 135 135 129 114 118 118 122 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 9 700-500 MB RH 44 48 49 51 54 57 58 58 63 62 66 63 64 58 56 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 15 18 19 23 23 25 24 23 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -15 -27 -34 -36 -36 -27 -30 -4 -14 10 1 18 0 21 -3 12 200 MB DIV -3 4 21 11 28 27 47 11 32 4 35 18 19 27 30 30 6 700-850 TADV 4 6 5 6 7 0 5 -6 0 0 0 2 3 3 4 4 3 LAND (KM) 63 74 167 266 309 447 600 648 492 320 199 88 16 -15 0 -21 -57 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.2 20.0 20.9 21.8 23.7 25.2 26.4 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 65.9 66.6 67.3 67.9 69.4 71.1 73.2 75.1 77.0 78.5 79.8 80.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 10 10 10 8 6 6 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 65 70 81 83 71 51 49 51 57 53 56 48 21 33 38 29 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 11. 13. 10. 8. 5. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 21. 27. 31. 34. 33. 37. 34. 35. 30. 28. 24. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.3 65.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 12.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.70 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.50 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 4.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.24 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 488.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.37 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.50 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.7% 43.7% 34.1% 30.5% 8.5% 28.4% 28.7% 23.7% Logistic: 10.7% 31.5% 23.2% 20.4% 10.1% 34.5% 30.6% 33.3% Bayesian: 6.4% 30.0% 7.8% 1.3% 0.3% 5.2% 8.8% 0.3% Consensus: 14.3% 35.0% 21.7% 17.4% 6.3% 22.7% 22.7% 19.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 7( 13) 10( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 3( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 74 77 80 86 92 96 99 98 102 99 100 72 50 43 33 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 74 80 86 90 93 92 96 93 94 66 44 37 27 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 73 79 83 86 85 89 86 87 59 37 30 20 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 64 70 74 77 76 80 77 78 50 28 21 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT