* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062019 08/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 34 36 40 44 41 36 27 25 22 18 15 16 17 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 34 36 40 44 41 36 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 35 35 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 15 14 17 12 9 19 36 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -9 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 6 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 344 352 326 331 351 254 219 229 232 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 27.4 27.3 21.0 19.1 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 140 140 143 131 131 86 80 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 117 115 116 121 113 113 78 74 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 59 59 61 57 50 45 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -16 -20 -15 5 -12 -2 -32 -23 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 9 36 10 -1 27 12 43 23 40 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 0 4 -3 8 15 27 38 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 598 589 582 558 536 490 559 400 221 46 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.3 31.5 32.0 32.4 34.1 36.5 39.4 42.6 46.0 49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.7 71.6 71.5 71.4 70.7 69.1 66.3 62.9 59.3 55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 5 7 11 16 19 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 21 21 21 34 23 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -5. -14. -17. -22. -27. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -9. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 10. 14. 11. 6. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.1 71.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062019 SIX 08/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.39 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 10.5% 7.4% 5.2% 2.0% 6.4% 8.7% 7.9% Logistic: 1.7% 3.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.7% 3.4% 2.0% 0.7% 2.5% 3.4% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062019 SIX 08/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062019 SIX 08/27/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 34 36 40 44 41 36 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 32 34 38 42 39 34 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 29 33 37 34 29 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 26 30 27 22 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT