* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 19 17 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 177 170 177 176 162 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 22.0 21.3 20.7 20.5 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 80 73 66 63 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 44 43 42 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -36 -37 -28 -16 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 0 -22 0 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 -2 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 363 341 331 324 324 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.3 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.0 118.2 118.3 118.3 118.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -6. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -15. -24. -31. -38. -46. -52. -57. -62. -67. -72. -76. -81. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.7 117.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##