* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 42 48 54 59 63 67 69 73 78 82 85 90 92 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 42 48 54 59 63 67 69 53 47 51 55 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 45 50 55 59 62 64 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 1 1 4 2 8 11 16 16 19 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 5 1 -1 0 -5 -7 -4 -5 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 110 140 324 2 318 304 254 264 245 255 210 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 143 146 152 154 155 159 155 153 155 155 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 143 146 152 154 154 157 151 147 148 146 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 41 42 43 47 50 49 49 47 49 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 9 4 2 9 8 16 18 16 7 1 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -15 -11 -3 -17 -5 15 18 26 31 -6 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 1 -1 2 3 4 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 629 631 632 572 480 319 322 444 273 144 46 -64 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.7 18.9 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.4 54.5 55.6 56.8 58.9 61.0 63.0 65.0 66.8 68.6 70.3 72.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 17 23 32 42 37 37 45 49 76 87 67 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 32. 34. 39. 43. 47. 50. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.1 52.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.96 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.4% 10.9% 7.9% 4.8% 10.3% 20.9% 32.6% Logistic: 5.1% 21.3% 18.7% 11.9% 5.0% 14.2% 14.2% 18.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 3.5% 14.4% 10.7% 6.6% 3.3% 8.4% 11.7% 17.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 40 42 48 54 59 63 67 69 53 47 51 55 59 62 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 40 46 52 57 61 65 67 51 45 49 53 57 60 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 42 48 53 57 61 63 47 41 45 49 53 56 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 39 44 48 52 54 38 32 36 40 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT