* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 62 65 66 64 57 50 41 30 20 19 19 18 17 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 62 65 66 64 57 50 41 30 20 19 19 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 62 63 59 52 45 37 31 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 19 19 17 15 7 1 7 11 15 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 2 3 4 8 1 6 -1 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 43 37 48 45 43 40 332 212 220 185 179 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.3 27.3 25.7 23.9 22.0 20.8 20.6 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 161 159 147 136 120 101 81 69 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 74 72 70 66 60 59 55 52 49 45 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 22 21 21 21 20 18 16 14 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 104 108 116 112 85 57 36 17 13 14 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 77 60 43 41 15 0 -35 -22 -26 -12 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -15 -12 -8 -8 -17 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 709 759 761 763 780 779 725 682 634 576 594 617 613 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.6 23.2 24.9 26.4 27.9 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.9 113.1 114.0 114.9 116.2 117.2 118.0 118.8 119.8 120.8 121.8 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 23 22 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 366 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 10. 6. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -3. -7. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 17. 20. 21. 19. 12. 5. -4. -15. -25. -26. -26. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.03 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 24.8% 23.0% 18.7% 12.8% 0.0% 16.4% 12.5% Logistic: 2.9% 11.4% 3.6% 1.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 13.0% 9.1% 6.9% 4.6% 0.5% 5.7% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##